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Thread: The random nature of draws vs. how it is in Alberta

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    Member northernalberta's Avatar
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    Default The random nature of draws vs. how it is in Alberta

    I was reading some of the threads about draws on here and it got me thinking. I moved here from Alberta, Canada. Back in Alberta it a similar system where some species like whitetail are general harvest and then moose is general in some places and draw in others, and elk and muleys are usually draws, especially in the mountains. But the way they dealt with it is, say they give out 100 elk draws for one unit and 200 people apply. The 100 who are unsuccessful, go from "priority 0" to "priority 1" and the next year, they get precedence. The supply and demand of draws vary by species and unit, but in general if you were putting in for an elk draw year after year, you usually got it by the time you were priority 1, and ALWAYS got it by the time you were priority 2. Cow elk and cow moose were way more restricted, you usually had to be priority 5 or 6 to get it, but if you had the patience & put in every year you were guaranteed to eventually get it. If you couldn't hunt one year, say you were deployed or busy with work; you could still put in a "999" and they would bump you a priority level for the following year.

    In other words, with a limited number of draws to give out, they start with those who have the highest priority for that species and then work down the list.

    But here in AK.... it's random. You can put in for 20 years and not get the species you want, and somebody else can get it the first year. Just wondered why they wouldn't go to a priority system, or do they for some species???

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    Points systems. They have been discussed at length here and the common consensus is that the random draw system is by far the best option. Figure that many hunts are not just a one or two year wait up here. Many, would be a once in a lifetime hunt IF you lived long enough for you to gain enough points to get to the top of the list. It also works against the idea of trying to bring new hunters into the sport. With the draw system, a new hunter has a reasonable chance to draw a permit. With a points system, how successful would you be in bringing in a new hunter when they know they won't get a permit for 20+ years, and that is only if they put in for the permit every year from now on? Random draw is even odds for everyone every time.

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    Default preference point systems

    That's some good initial thinking on the subject, but there are details in the implementation that you're not aware of that make it a much less fair system than you now seem to know.

    Google
    hunt drawing point systems
    and you'll see that the path you're on is a well-travelled one, and there is much written about how point systems now deployed are designed to work today.

    Talk to anyone that has dealt with a point system for years and you'll hear a less rosy story. Things like:

    - if your son starts applying for permit X when he turns ten, he is pretty guaranteed to not draw it until he's in his 30's if he's lucky. Who (at 10 years old) stays interested in hunting that long, with no permit?

    - Choose western state (whichever). Say their point system was implemented 20 years ago (some were). There are still people with 16 preference points, earned one per year, that are still looking to get that permit. (How sad is that?)

    Keep studying, and post more thoughts. That is a lively topic for winter.

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    Member northernalberta's Avatar
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    Thanks for your inputs. I figured there was another side to the story.

    I guess if you were a newcomer and were putting in for something say like, Farewell bison herd, you know you have the same odds of drawing as a veteran of 30 years... as remote as those odds are. A priority system here would only result in grey hairs (no offense!) who have been putting in for 40 years, getting drawn.

    So a priority system would work better in something where you would have say a 10%-40% chance of getting drawn. At least I would rather put in for a couple years and KNOW I was going to get drawn, rather than gambling every year. No reason they couldn't do both! Have a points system for certain draws and not others? Of course, if the consensus is in favor of a random system overall, then so be it.

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    Quote Originally Posted by northernalberta View Post
    Thanks for your inputs. I figured there was another side to the story.

    I guess if you were a newcomer and were putting in for something say like, Farewell bison herd, you know you have the same odds of drawing as a veteran of 30 years... as remote as those odds are. A priority system here would only result in grey hairs (no offense!) who have been putting in for 40 years, getting drawn.

    So a priority system would work better in something where you would have say a 10%-40% chance of getting drawn. At least I would rather put in for a couple years and KNOW I was going to get drawn, rather than gambling every year. No reason they couldn't do both! Have a points system for certain draws and not others? Of course, if the consensus is in favor of a random system overall, then so be it.

    I hear ya for sure on this one. I have always been on the fence so to speak(meaning I can see both sides of the coin). I am NOT in favor of points system but can certainly see their merit. My dad has been putting in for certain hunts here since he moved here over 30 years ago(yes I am aware people have put in for longer so save the comments please) and now that he is 70 he is likely to never get to go on these hunts.. I do love the random drawing too as it is so cool to look at the list and see your name or in the case of this year crack open the email and see a yes.. There are quite a few hunts here that have better chances for the draw and some not so much.. The cool thing though for most hunts even though you dont draw that tag you can still usually hunt that animal(or species I should say) on a harvest ticket.. Not too many point system areas can boast that claim...

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    Points systems suck in my opinion. Coming from Oregon it's the same exact way you describe and it's all fine and dandy if there's lots of tags to be given out. But if we had a point system for sheep where there's only a handful of tags, hundreds of folks applying for them and you fell behind the points curve? You'd never get a tag.

    There are hunts all across the west that are that way. If you started now to get points, you'd never draw that tag because there are so many people ahead of you with more "priority". I say Alaska's system is just fine the way it is and it's nice to feel excited that you at least have a chance to draw every year.

    However! I do believe there should be a waiting period before people can reaaply for hunts after being successfull in drawing them. My opinion on folks getting back to back sheep tags or two kodiak brown bear tags in three years is that, you got your chance and got to enjoy it, it's someone elses turn.

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    Quote Originally Posted by mossyhorn View Post
    Points systems suck in my opinion. Coming from Oregon it's the same exact way you describe and it's all fine and dandy if there's lots of tags to be given out. But if we had a point system for sheep where there's only a handful of tags, hundreds of folks applying for them and you fell behind the points curve? You'd never get a tag.

    There are hunts all across the west that are that way. If you started now to get points, you'd never draw that tag because there are so many people ahead of you with more "priority". I say Alaska's system is just fine the way it is and it's nice to feel excited that you at least have a chance to draw every year.

    Couldn't agree more with you mossyhorns!!!!

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    I have been skunked the last two years and wouldn't change a thing with the draw. The only thing I will say is that we have enough draws at this point and I hope we can refrain from creating any more special use areas.

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    Mossyhorn, didn't Oregon have a problem with corruption in their point system a few years ago? I am from the Willamette valley and seem to recall the higher up F&G guys getting in trouble for giving thier friends and family really hard to get tags.

    I personally like the system we have here vs the point system we had in Oregon. I do agree however that it may be a good idea to have a waiting period before you can draw a certain tag again.
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    Duckslayer, If there was I didn't hear about it but I suppose it could happen. Nothing surprises me anymore! LOL!

    Where at in the valley were you from? I grew up in Elmira and lived in Corvallis for about 7 years.

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    I like the point system as well as a waiting system if you get drawn and wish Alaska would grow up like the rest of the world.

    My personal opinion is the Alaska system is crooked. Just a couple of facts to toss out there to confirm my opinion.........back in the late 70's I watched a guy draw two Delta bison permits in back to back years. Maybe it helped he was doing volenteer work with F&G with the herd
    Then there were the 6 non resident guys we met on the Koyukuk. Everyone drew a tag to hunt the area and they were guided by a Cabelas outfit. There are other examples. Then we have the system where a resident can apply for a Kodiak bear tag and never get it, but if a non resident wants to pay a guide he can get the permit pretty easy.

    The point system would bascially force Alaska F&G to run a legal draw because a hunter would have proof they should of gotten the permit ahead of someone else.

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    Some people up here do not realize how points systems work. There are two different points systems and one of them is more fair than the other.

    Bonus Points: Bonus points do not offer any priority system for drawing a tag, but rather, it only gives you more chances to draw a tag. For example, every year you do not draw a certain tag, you get a Bonus Point. All that means is that you get your name in the hat an extra time. After ten years of not drawing a tag, you get your name in the hat 11 times if you apply. This is a good system and does not create an organized waiting period.

    Preference Points: This is an organized system that puts you in line to wait for a tag. If you don't have the most possible preference points, you do not have preference, so you do not get a tag. However, some states set aside an overall percentage of tags for random drawings and also utilize the preference system. Overall, the preference point system keeps people waiting decades before they can draw a tag.

    In conclusion, bonus points are the better of the two systems as they do not create a 40 year waiting line for a tag. Anyone can draw it and the more you apply, the more chances you get.

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    Quote Originally Posted by Snowwolfe View Post
    I like the point system as well as a waiting system if you get drawn and wish Alaska would grow up like the rest of the world.

    My personal opinion is the Alaska system is crooked. Just a couple of facts to toss out there to confirm my opinion.........back in the late 70's I watched a guy draw two Delta bison permits in back to back years. Maybe it helped he was doing volenteer work with F&G with the herd
    Then there were the 6 non resident guys we met on the Koyukuk. Everyone drew a tag to hunt the area and they were guided by a Cabelas outfit. There are other examples. Then we have the system where a resident can apply for a Kodiak bear tag and never get it, but if a non resident wants to pay a guide he can get the permit pretty easy.

    The point system would bascially force Alaska F&G to run a legal draw because a hunter would have proof they should of gotten the permit ahead of someone else.
    now I don't what the chances of being drawn was back in the 70's but when my dad drew it was about 2% per tag thatís about a 4% of being drawn in one year (1-n)*(1-n). to draw two years strait years is about .16% or 1/625 thatís really not that improbable.

    second people who put in for draws are mostly sportsmen, it would make since that a large number of these people work for or volunteer for fish and game because then they can do what they love. it shouldn't be that odd that they get drawn.

    now for bounus points:
    lets say 10 people apply for a hunt with one chance (1/10) and get a bonus point each year they don't get one (1 chance year 1, 2 chances year 2 and so on) and lets say it goes in a circle (there is always one person with 1 point one person with 2 points and so on till there is one person with 10 points). the chance of the 10th person getting drawn by his 10th year is 65.7% (that's acutally higher cause it incudes chances of being drawn twice and assumeing you don't loose points when drawn) that persons chance of being drawn under an "equal chance sytem" 65.1%

    equal chance Bonus points chance per year bonus points Chance of being drawn by this year
    1 10.0% 1.82% 1.82%
    2 19.0% 3.64% 5.39%
    3 27.1% 5.45% 10.55%
    4 34.4% 7.27% 17.05%
    5 41.0% 9.09% 24.60%
    6 46.9% 10.91% 32.82%
    7 52.2% 12.73% 41.37%
    8 57.0% 14.55% 49.90%
    9 61.3% 16.36% 58.10%
    10 65.1% 18.18% 65.72%

    please note there are lots of things wrong with thisestimation, I only have so much statistical knowledge and have already put toomuch work into this it basically shows that under a bonus point system you donítgain any real advantage of being drawn over time, but you will have to wait tobe drawn.


    If I did anything majorly wrong please tell me I like statisticsand love learning more about it


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    Preference points are a bad idea for the reasons stated in previous posts. I personally like bonus point systems but I understand why some are not a fan of those systems either. I think Utah has set up a great drawing system. First of all, they use a bonus point system but that wouldn't be mandatory here in Alaska. The part of their system that is really great is that a person can only draw one tag per year and they draw tags for various species in an ascending order of desirability. In Alaska we could set it up to draw in this order: caribou, elk, moose, goat, brown bear, sheep, musk ox, bison. A person can apply for as many hunts as you want but you can only draw one. This means that if you apply for all the tags and get drawn for a caribou, the rest of your apps get thrown out of the rest of the drawings for this year. If you are dead set on getting a bison permit you need to skip applying for all other species and focus just on bison. The odds on drawing that bison permit would go way up for the dedicated bison hunter cause most of us wouldn't be willing to skip applying for the more common caribou and moose hunts. I like this system a lot cause even though it makes a hunter make some tough decisions when applying for hunts, it improves the odds for all of us for drawing a permit each year.

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    Well, best advice I can give, is turn in hunt reports on time or early, do online or in person so you have a stamped proof or electronic paper trail. You can get black listed for the such, which prevents you from drawing. Second, shut up! Put in for higher draw result tags if ya want better odds. Third, shut up! and quite crying. Fourth, be a tropper, pull your big boy panties up and keep applying and playing the game. Fifth, I'll have fun hunting my caribou tag I drew, haven't hunted Nelchina since 1997!

    First two years when the nelchina tier 2 was goin, any cow or 6 points or less for a bull, I drew both times. Just off the top of my head, I have drawn 11 tags in 16 years. 2 sheep, 4 caribou, 4 moose, Brown bear, Elk not sure if I am missing anything. ONLY THING I KNOW I DO IS, turn in hunt reports on time. AND, don't complain here on the forums where F&G might be laughing and keeps messing you that never win and complain about it here!!!

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    Quote Originally Posted by LuJon View Post
    I have been skunked the last two years and wouldn't change a thing with the draw. The only thing I will say is that we have enough draws at this point and I hope we can refrain from creating any more special use areas.

    I think you should have a few more kids to increase your odds .........

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    Bonus points and lots of draws each year are good for a State trying to make more money off their draw system.Washington State created the most unfair system I've ever seen when they created different categories for the same species, that now, each hunter can put in for each year. Before, you picked 4 hunts for each species each year. Now in deer for instance, you get 4 picks for a doe tag, 4 picks for a quality buck hunt, 4 picks for a second deer tag, 4 picks for a rut buck tag in certain units, 4 pick for a youth tag if you qualify, 4 picks for an over 65 tag if you qualify, 4 picks for a handicapped tag if you qualify, and 4 picks for a master hunter tag if you qualify. Now mind you, you can only shoot one deer per year unless you draw a second deer tag. But one person could conceivably draw 4 or 5 permits for deer in one year even though they can only shoot one or two deer max. So say Hunter A draws a quality buck tag, a rut buck tag, a doe tag, and an over 65 tag then goes out and kills a deer with the quality buck tag. His rut tag, doe tag, and over 65 tag go to waste when someone else could have used them.

    Now the real corker of all this........ Before these categories were separated, some guys, the mostly trophy hunters, put in for hard to draw tags, because if they drew, the chances were good for a wall hanger. So a lot of these guys were sitting on big points, 10-15. Some guys on the other hand (meat hunters) were happy drawing a cow tag every 3-5 years so they rarely saved up more than 3-5 points. When the new sub category draw came into effect, you got credit in each category you qualified for for all the preference points you had saved up. So the State created a "super class" of preference point holders who now dominate every category except maybe the youth draws. All of a sudden, the guys who put in for doe tags all the time, were competing in draw with guys who were gifted 10-15 points, plus if they put in for a quality buck tag, They only had a couple points compared to the other guys big point advantage. And just think of the poor guy who was 64 and had drawn a doe tag the year before so was zeroed out in points when the new system started. The next year, he'd start putting in for an over 65 tag with 1 point against all those older guys who got gifted a bunch of points. Will he live long enough to collect enough points to draw a tag? And how many years will a kid who's a new hunter have to put in to draw a quality buck tag against all those guys with max points?

    To read more on Washington's new system....... http://hunting-washington.com/smf/in...,118528.0.html
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    Default don't like points systems

    Quote Originally Posted by safari View Post
    I think Utah has set up a great drawing system.
    Check out this table of points in Utah:
    http://huntodds.monstermuleys.com/utah/12_le_deer.pdf

    Take a look at the 35 people that have been waiting over 15 years to get their deer tag. Not bison; deer. Does that seem nuts?

    This is a complicated subject with lots of data available. I'm open to hearing more but until I hear something that changes my mind, I am definitely not in favor of points.

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    Quote Originally Posted by FamilyMan View Post
    Check out this table of points in Utah:
    http://huntodds.monstermuleys.com/utah/12_le_deer.pdf

    Take a look at the 35 people that have been waiting over 15 years to get their deer tag. Not bison; deer. Does that seem nuts?

    This is a complicated subject with lots of data available. I'm open to hearing more but until I hear something that changes my mind, I am definitely not in favor of points.
    And that's just the non res. There are also 30 res hunters who have waited that long.
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    Quote Originally Posted by twodux View Post
    And that's just the non res. There are also 30 res hunters who have waited that long.
    Yes. And then we could talk rare Utah sheep tags, or goat, Rocky Mountain Elk, or even bison. And don't forget that once in a lifetime utah bull moose permit. My point with the list here is that all 6 of these other species are much rarer than deer in Utah, and my little 2 minutes of research showed a problem with just their deer tags. The rest is way worse.

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