ADFG produced a run forecast for 2013 of 29,000 fish.
This is nearly the same size return as 2012. The report states that "If the 2013 forecast is realized, the 2013 run, without harvest, will be below the upper end of the recommended sustainable escapement goal (SEG) of 15,000 to 30,000 fish."
One thing that the report failed to mention is the good news... Which is that the average annual harvest rate of Kenai late run kings for all user groups combined is 39%. That means if all user groups had a full fishery on a return of 29,000, we would still achieve a spawning escapement of 17,000-18,000 fish, well inside the new SEG and very close to the MSY point of 20,000. Hooooray!
Perhaps the report could have said, "If the 2013 forecast is realized, the 2013 run, with full harvest from all fisheries, will be above the lower end of the recommended sustainable escapement goal (SEG) of 15,000 to 30,000 fish."