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Thread: Gun & Ammo Frenzy Creates Backlogs!

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    Member Smokey's Avatar
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    Default Gun & Ammo Frenzy Creates Backlogs!

    I was talking to a major wholesaler of components yeserday and placed an order for some stock they had on the shelf. Then I was told due to the huge order volume it would likely not ship to me for 4 to 6 weeks! What???? This buying craze has been so massive these distributors are even backlogged on shipping what products they have. Really an eye opener to how quickly in a crisis our supply chain can go down...
    When asked what state I live in I say "The State of Confusion", better known as IL....

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    Member junkak's Avatar
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    Check out http://www.gunbot.net/

    Realtime updates of ammo stocks at various retailers.

    Scary to say the least. I highly doubt prices will come down much if and when stocks come back up.

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    Member Alangaq's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by junkak View Post
    Check out http://www.gunbot.net/

    Realtime updates of ammo stocks at various retailers.

    Scary to say the least. I highly doubt prices will come down much if and when stocks come back up.


    Cool link! but dont fret too much regarding future prices and stock. we were here before in 2008 and my guess is that we will be here again in 2016. That said, I suspect we will see the crazed frenzy subside a bit as we get closer to tax time and the manufactures will start catching up, and while "normalcy" might be a year away, I would expect to see 90% levels on ammo and components by June.
    “You’ve gotten soft. You’re like one of those police dogs who’s released in to the wild and gets eaten by a deer or something.” Bill McNeal of News Radio

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    Member junkak's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by Alangaq View Post
    Cool link! but dont fret too much regarding future prices and stock. we were here before in 2008 and my guess is that we will be here again in 2016. That said, I suspect we will see the crazed frenzy subside a bit as we get closer to tax time and the manufactures will start catching up, and while "normalcy" might be a year away, I would expect to see 90% levels on ammo and components by June.
    No doubt stocks will return but the price will not drop back to say 2011 levels. After the dust settles I'm guessing ammo will still be priced around 25% higher than this same time last year.

    Thanks for the Johnny Dangerously reminder. Queued into Netflix you fargin' icehole!

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    Quote Originally Posted by Alangaq View Post

    we were here before in 2008 and my guess is that we will be here again in 2016. That said, I suspect we will see the crazed frenzy subside a bit as we get closer to tax time and the manufactures will start catching up, and while "normalcy" might be a year away, I would expect to see 90% levels on ammo and components by June.

    So.....do I understand correctly......that for the most part consumers of Firearms and Ammo are dumber than a rock......???

    What was learned in 1994........Nothing
    What was learned in 2008........Nothing
    What was learned in 2012........Nothing
    What will be learned before 2016...........Most likely NOTHING

    Look this is not personal towards "Alangaq"

    Now I will assume that DHS is not as dumb as we in the shooting community are, (Note that bought two billion rounds of "Hollow Point" ammo before the frenzy, and seven thousand "SELECT FIRE" AR's). What "Intel" have they gathered about our behavior...? Maybe that "We" are dumber than a box of rocks. Is this post intended to pee people off so they take action............Yes.

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    Quote Originally Posted by junkak View Post
    No doubt stocks will return but the price will not drop back to say 2011 levels. After the dust settles I'm guessing ammo will still be priced around 25% higher than this same time last year.
    Serious question so please don't take it as critisism: Why do you think the prices will stay elevated once stock levels return to normal?

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    Member junkak's Avatar
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    The simplest answer is that demand will remain high for a few years. Add in short supply and possible legislation. On top of that we live in a teetering economy but shouldn't get into that on this forum. :-)

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    Quote Originally Posted by limon32 View Post
    Serious question so please don't take it as critisism: Why do you think the prices will stay elevated once stock levels return to normal?
    The cost of 'Raw' materials is up and barring a catastrophic world depression will continue up. The DHS will continue to be a "HUGE" stock procurer of Firearms and ammo for many, many years to come. I don't think we will ever see the depth of inventory that existed in the past. There are now a few million more new firearms & ammo users today than 90 days ago. I don't NOT think this shortage will ever end. It will only expand into other areas like food & fuel. The Federal Reserve has for the last 5 years suppressed interest rates. We are in for hyper-inflation.

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    Quote Originally Posted by junkak View Post
    The simplest answer is that demand will remain high for a few years. Add in short supply and possible legislation. On top of that we live in a teetering economy but shouldn't get into that on this forum. :-)
    Because the market will bear it. The same reason "they" charge what they want for fuel, because they can do what they want and we will continue to buy it.

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    Here Is the reverse question, at what point will people throw in the towel, and realize it ain't ever going to be like it was........??? And when they do all jump in do we blame them for a new round of shortages.......????

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    Quote Originally Posted by AGL4now View Post
    Here Is the reverse question, at what point will people throw in the towel, and realize it ain't ever going to be like it was........??? And when they do all jump in do we blame them for a new round of shortages.......????
    Don't look now, but it appears that has already happened!

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    You MEN should ask your lady if food prices are dropping........????

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    Quote Originally Posted by AGL4now View Post
    You MEN should ask your lady if food prices are dropping........????
    It's 2013 AGL...believe it or not, men are allowed in grocery stores now!!

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    Quote Originally Posted by AGL4now View Post
    You MEN should ask your lady if food prices are dropping........????
    Ours are 28% higher than 1.5 years ago.

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    Quote Originally Posted by junkak View Post
    Ours are 28% higher than 1.5 years ago.
    Yes, I fear that I will have to go to the Betty Ford Clinic and be treated for my addiction to Vanilla Flavored Creamer. It has doubled in the last 2 years.

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    Quote Originally Posted by AGL4now View Post
    Here Is the reverse question, at what point will people throw in the towel, and realize it ain't ever going to be like it was........??? And when they do all jump in do we blame them for a new round of shortages.......????
    I asked my previous question because in the past month i've watched Alaska List .223 go from well over $1 a round to about 75 cents and falling daily.

    I believe the current "shortage" has been compounded by folks who happen to have some spare money or room on their credit card seizing the opportunity to make a buck and buying up all they could get their hands on. This drove the others to try and grab what they could and so on. I think the "grey market" is already showing a relaxation based on the prices i've been watching. This has been true with magazines and to some extent rifles as well.

    I've even seen some ammo on shelves lately that is "impossible to find" according to some folks.

    Don't get me wrong, I don't think we'll see "normal" for months but I personally think we'll see it again. Perhaps its the last shreds of youthfull optimism I have, you see I saw a grey hair in one of the clumps that came off my head during my hair cut today!

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    Member junkak's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by limon32 View Post
    I asked my previous question because in the past month i've watched Alaska List .223 go from well over $1 a round to about 75 cents and falling daily.

    I believe the current "shortage" has been compounded by folks who happen to have some spare money or room on their credit card seizing the opportunity to make a buck and buying up all they could get their hands on. This drove the others to try and grab what they could and so on. I think the "grey market" is already showing a relaxation based on the prices i've been watching. This has been true with magazines and to some extent rifles as well.

    I've even seen some ammo on shelves lately that is "impossible to find" according to some folks.

    Don't get me wrong, I don't think we'll see "normal" for months but I personally think we'll see it again. Perhaps its the last shreds of youthfull optimism I have, you see I saw a grey hair in one of the clumps that came off my head during my hair cut today!
    Ebb and flow of the tide but the tide is growing. Fluctuating economy, metal prices, social sentiment, demand, supply.

    My price search for .223 / 5.56 is around .95 per round. Even in bulk. Maybe .70 for reloads. Some may sell for less and others for more but right now this is where we are. I'll revise my earlier prediction and upgrade to a simple 33% increase in ammunition prices after stabilization (should that happen).

    We have well known local gunshops selling cases of ammo at what they think is fair (and is fair). Folks walk in and buy then sell for extreme (40-100%) markup on local social media sites. Regular guy never gets a case at a fair price. Next step in that 'escalation of aggression' is the Gunshop upping their price to reduce the amount of speculative buyers.

    I just want a couple freakin' cases of .223 without feeling buttrubbed afterwards. Maybe some 22-250 too!

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    when is virtually anything "like it used to be" ? there will always be speculators, after the Civil War they called them "carpet baggers" and often they were run out of town or worse - as far as ammo shortages go, supply and demand is part of capitalism and we either applaud it or curse it, seldom seems to be a status quo - profit margins are one of the main driving forces on anything "sales" oriented - you think ammo and related stuff is high now ? just wait until the new taxes are implimented !

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    Asked the wife to pick up some .22 ammo when she went to 3 bears yesterday. She called before she purchased with a price of $19- for a 50 round paper box.....thats correct $19-/50 rounds. Thats ridiculous!
    Needless to say, she didn't purchase any.
    I think they are gouging people pretty hard at that price.
    BK

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    So are they worried about civil unrest or driving up the prices and making it harder for the public to get ammo?

    http://www.infowars.com/dhs-purchase...of-ammunition/

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