Page 1 of 6 123 ... LastLast
Results 1 to 20 of 104

Thread: 2013 UCI sockeye forecast released

  1. #1
    Member fishNphysician's Avatar
    Join Date
    Jun 2006
    Location
    Aberdeen WA
    Posts
    4,516

    Default 2013 UCI sockeye forecast released

    Another bumper crop of Kenai reds is expected for 2013. Biologists are predicting 4.4 million paper fish to show up... 10% higher than the 2012 forecast of 4.0 million which ultimately materialized as 4.7 million real fish in the post-season analysis.


    More here...


    http://www.adfg.alaska.gov/static/ho.../241391057.pdf
    "Let every angler who loves to fish think what it would mean to him to find the fish were gone." Zane Grey
    http://www.piscatorialpursuits.com/uploads/UP12710.jpg
    The KeenEye MD

  2. #2
    Member
    Join Date
    Feb 2011
    Posts
    1,959

    Default

    That will be great! I have 7 new gillnets ready to go kill them. Looking forward to a great year in the Inlet, and I hope the setnetters get a fair shot at them too!

  3. #3
    Member
    Join Date
    May 2008
    Posts
    6,031

    Default

    Quote Originally Posted by fishNphysician View Post
    Another bumper crop of Kenai reds is expected for 2013. Biologists are predicting 4.4 million paper fish to show up... 10% higher than the 2012 forecast of 4.0 million which ultimately materialized as 4.7 million real fish in the post-season analysis.
    Great news for the Kenai Reds, but not so much for the Susitna Reds. I have not heard of any recovery plan for them.

    And averaging Fish Creek over 20 years doesn't seem so fair; our management of Fish Creek has changed quite a lot over 2 decades so Fish Creek's numbers don't seem real useful.

    Thanks for posting the info Doc and +1. Everyone could stand reading the docs like this that F&G publish.

  4. #4
    Member
    Join Date
    Feb 2011
    Posts
    1,959

    Default

    Quote Originally Posted by FamilyMan View Post
    Great news for the Kenai Reds, but not so much for the Susitna Reds. I have not heard of any recovery plan for them.

    And averaging Fish Creek over 20 years doesn't seem so fair; our management of Fish Creek has changed quite a lot over 2 decades so Fish Creek's numbers don't seem real useful.

    Thanks for posting the info Doc and +1. Everyone could stand reading the docs like this that F&G publish.
    Recovery plan: Rip out all the beaver dams you can, kill every pike you see, and keep guides and clients off the spawning beds. It might help not to pointing fingers at others, and clean up your own back yard first. When that is done you will see that others are willing to help, if not there is no hope. This has to be done for reds and Kings, if not don't cry about bad returns! No smolts out, no adults returning it's that simple.

  5. #5
    Member
    Join Date
    May 2008
    Posts
    6,031

    Default

    Quote Originally Posted by MGH55 View Post
    Recovery plan: Rip out all the beaver dams you can, kill every pike you see, and keep guides and clients off the spawning beds. It might help not to pointing fingers at others, and clean up your own back yard first. When that is done you will see that others are willing to help, if not there is no hope. This has to be done for reds and Kings, if not don't cry about bad returns! No smolts out, no adults returning it's that simple.
    Yes, to some of what you say.

    I'd love to go blow up a bunch of dams, and would even use my own boat/motor/gas if you can get the explosives and my time paid for. And maybe a permit or two...

    I wouldn't mind killing every pike in Alaska. Sorry if that came out rude, but that's how I feel. Anyone that has even glanced at this issue knows how horribly invasive they are (almost viral like?) meaning they spread everywhere they can. Young trout and salmon are always in abundance until they've eaten them all up in an area and the pike will then eat themselves leaving a great fish void where once fish thrived. I'm not sure how you can kill just the pike though - like with rotenone or some other way severe treatment that would damage more than just the pike.... :-( Do you know of any way?

    And no I'm not pointing fingers or crying, sorry if it came out wrong.

  6. #6
    Member thewhop2000's Avatar
    Join Date
    Mar 2007
    Location
    Wasilla
    Posts
    2,366

    Default

    Yea... I'm relying on a guesstimate. They do this every year and never seem to get it right. So why should we believe now????
    If a dipnetter dips a fish and there is no one around to see/hear it, Did he really dip?

  7. #7
    Member
    Join Date
    Feb 2011
    Posts
    1,959

    Default

    To me, beavers are to salmon like bears and wolves are to moose. I use my own gas and guns to do my part. To get rid of beavers all you need is time. I would love to see a bounty on them.

  8. #8
    Member fishNphysician's Avatar
    Join Date
    Jun 2006
    Location
    Aberdeen WA
    Posts
    4,516

    Default

    Quote Originally Posted by MGH55 View Post
    To me, beavers are to salmon like bears and wolves are to moose. I use my own gas and guns to do my part. To get rid of beavers all you need is time. I would love to see a bounty on them.
    Not quite that black and white. Beavers have co-existed w/ salmon for eons. In fact here in the PNW, beavers and their architectural habits were a key part of the juvenile rearing habitat that allowed coastal coho to flourish. When beavers were trapped en masse by the fur trade, the coho tanked. Bottom line, beavers can be good for salmon.

    But now throw pike into the mix, and what was once great backwater habitat suddenly becomes pretty dam hostile.
    "Let every angler who loves to fish think what it would mean to him to find the fish were gone." Zane Grey
    http://www.piscatorialpursuits.com/uploads/UP12710.jpg
    The KeenEye MD

  9. #9
    Member fishNphysician's Avatar
    Join Date
    Jun 2006
    Location
    Aberdeen WA
    Posts
    4,516

    Default

    Quote Originally Posted by thewhop2000 View Post
    Yea... I'm relying on a guesstimate. They do this every year and never seem to get it right. So why should we believe now????
    Like it or not, that forecast sets the stage for the baseline fishery until the in-season update occurs late in the third week of July.

    The BIG question will be how the chinook return (or lack thereof) will affect things for 2013.
    "Let every angler who loves to fish think what it would mean to him to find the fish were gone." Zane Grey
    http://www.piscatorialpursuits.com/uploads/UP12710.jpg
    The KeenEye MD

  10. #10
    Member
    Join Date
    Apr 2008
    Posts
    2,448

    Default

    Quote Originally Posted by MGH55 View Post
    To me, beavers are to salmon like bears and wolves are to moose. I use my own gas and guns to do my part. To get rid of beavers all you need is time. I would love to see a bounty on them.
    A .22 and a little time will take care of them. We had beaver problems on the farm and a few evenings and the problem is gone. A bounty would be great!

  11. #11
    Member
    Join Date
    Jan 2007
    Location
    welfare state of Alaska
    Posts
    5,153

    Default dang over-escapement

    Gosh - and all the while we were being told that constantly exceeding the upper limit of the escapement goals was going to wipe the fish out! Perhaps its time to re-evaluate the escapement goals.

    Just hope we get some fish in the upper river also including the Russian - runs have been slow there the last couple of years. But, heck, who cares about us sport fishermen anyway?



    Quote Originally Posted by fishNphysician View Post
    Another bumper crop of Kenai reds is expected for 2013. Biologists are predicting 4.4 million paper fish to show up... 10% higher than the 2012 forecast of 4.0 million which ultimately materialized as 4.7 million real fish in the post-season analysis. More here...

    http://www.adfg.alaska.gov/static/ho.../241391057.pdf
    Living the urban lifestyle so I can pay my way and for my family's needs, and support my country. And you?
    ".. ask not what your country can do for you, ask what you can do for your country" JFK

  12. #12
    Member hoose35's Avatar
    Join Date
    Jul 2008
    Location
    Soldotna, Alaska, United States
    Posts
    2,890

    Default

    Quote Originally Posted by tvfinak View Post
    Gosh - and all the while we were being told that constantly exceeding the upper limit of the escapement goals was going to wipe the fish out! Perhaps its time to re-evaluate the escapement goals.

    Just hope we get some fish in the upper river also including the Russian - runs have been slow there the last couple of years. But, heck, who cares about us sport fishermen anyway?
    I haven't looked up the data yet, but wasn't the red run pretty weak 3 years ago
    Responsible Conservation > Political Allocation

  13. #13
    New member
    Join Date
    Feb 2004
    Location
    Soldotna
    Posts
    5,639

    Wink

    Quote Originally Posted by hoose35 View Post
    I haven't looked up the data yet, but wasn't the red run pretty weak 3 years ago

    Oh, please, don't stir or encourage the "Poor Me," pot again . .

  14. #14
    Member AlaskaHippie's Avatar
    Join Date
    Apr 2006
    Location
    Beaver Fork
    Posts
    3,853

    Default

    I can't recall NOT limiting out on any of my trips to the Upper for sockeye in the past 2 years.
    In fact, escapement was reached both years.

    Two years back the run stalled in Skilak and arrived at the Upper pretty blushy, but arrive they did, in significant numbers.
    It's a common practice for folks who couldn't catch a fish in a bucket no matter how hard they try, to blame everything but their own obvious shortcomings....
    “Life has become immeasurably better since I have been forced to stop taking it seriously.” ― H.S.T.
    "Character is how you treat those who can do nothing for you."

  15. #15

    Default 2013 UCI sockeye forecast released

    I can't believe anyone would fish the upper river. Didn't you all know there's bears up there? And all that cold rushing water - it's just too dangerous...

  16. #16
    Member
    Join Date
    Jan 2007
    Location
    welfare state of Alaska
    Posts
    5,153

    Default yea, I know but...

    Very dangerous, esp. the ride down the highway.

    But for those of us that live in Anchorage, it is our nearest opportunity, and a chance to sometimes fish after work in the afternoons.

    Quote Originally Posted by smithtb View Post
    I can't believe anyone would fish the upper river. Didn't you all know there's bears up there? And all that cold rushing water - it's just too dangerous...
    Living the urban lifestyle so I can pay my way and for my family's needs, and support my country. And you?
    ".. ask not what your country can do for you, ask what you can do for your country" JFK

  17. #17
    Member fishNphysician's Avatar
    Join Date
    Jun 2006
    Location
    Aberdeen WA
    Posts
    4,516

    Default

    The dominant age classes for late run KENAI sockeye are 1.3 (56%) and 2.3 (20%). For 2013, these are 5- and 6- yr old salmon originating from the 2007 and 2008 brood years. These two age classes account for the vast majority of the returning fish.

    For the record, 1.2 million reds swam past the sonar in 2007 and 0.92 million went by in 2008... escapement both years was well within the BEG.
    "Let every angler who loves to fish think what it would mean to him to find the fish were gone." Zane Grey
    http://www.piscatorialpursuits.com/uploads/UP12710.jpg
    The KeenEye MD

  18. #18
    Member AlaskaHippie's Avatar
    Join Date
    Apr 2006
    Location
    Beaver Fork
    Posts
    3,853

    Default

    Right. Over. His. Head. Smith.....

    But thanks for the laugh.
    “Life has become immeasurably better since I have been forced to stop taking it seriously.” ― H.S.T.
    "Character is how you treat those who can do nothing for you."

  19. #19
    Member
    Join Date
    Apr 2007
    Location
    Vancouver, Washington
    Posts
    1,207

    Default

    Great information! Thanks Doc.

    However, this statement jumped right off the page:

    "In 2012, the harvest of sockeye salmon by all user groups in UCI was equal to the pre-season forecast of 4.4 million."

    So, despite the restrictions on Chinook salmon on the Kenai, the overall harvest of sockeye was equal to what ADF&G estimated in the pre-season forecast. Even though some folks got stuck (ESSNetters), the fishery management objectives for sockeye salmon on the UCI were achieved. That is, the BEG was achieved, and so was the overall harvest of adults. As a fishery manager, what else is there?

    Lots of folks on this BB were, and are, concerned about lost fishing opportunity, but at the end of the season, there wasn't any lost opportunity (overall). Some folks benefited while other folks lost out, but that's fishery management.

    Maybe I'm reading the report wrong. If someone else has a different explanation, please do.

  20. #20
    New member
    Join Date
    Feb 2004
    Location
    Soldotna
    Posts
    5,639

    Exclamation

    Quote Originally Posted by Cohoangler View Post
    . . Even though some folks got stuck (ESSNetters), the fishery management objectives for sockeye salmon on the UCI were achieved. That is, the BEG was achieved, and so was the overall harvest of adults. As a fishery manager, what else is there?

    Lots of folks on this BB were, and are, concerned about lost fishing opportunity, but at the end of the season, there wasn't any lost opportunity (overall). Some folks benefited while other folks lost out, but that's fishery management.

    Maybe I'm reading the report wrong. If someone else has a different explanation, please do.



    What else is there indeed. I suppose, from a fishery-management bureaucrat's perspective, there ain't nuthin' more than meeting impersonal, bureaucratically-defined objectives.


    Speaking from a larger perspective, say, as a human being, there's lots more. Some folks got "stuck"? Quite the euphemism for missing a year's worth of expected income. "Lost out"? Big time. A whole segment of Cook Inlet's gill-net industry and all its support elements "lost out" as well as did all the downstream, economic activity that would otherwise have been present.


    Finally, that is most emphatically not "fishery management." That is politically-defined, fishery-management objectives gone awry.



Page 1 of 6 123 ... LastLast

Bookmarks

Posting Permissions

  • You may not post new threads
  • You may not post replies
  • You may not post attachments
  • You may not edit your posts
  •