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Thread: Forcast for returns?

  1. #1
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    Default Forcast for returns?

    I am looking for the past forecasts for like the last 5 years and for future forecasts and can not find them. I am looking for SE Alaska around the Ketchican area. I have been looking but not much luck, any ideas or links would be helpful.

    The reason I am asking is the biologist for the area said the returns were good in the area but we fished it the same time as before for 4 years and last year was not very good at all for us for the silvers.



    Thanks

  2. #2

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    Quote Originally Posted by Iwanttofish View Post
    I am looking for the past forecasts for like the last 5 years and for future forecasts and can not find them. I am looking for SE Alaska around the Ketchican area. I have been looking but not much luck, any ideas or links would be helpful.

    The reason I am asking is the biologist for the area said the returns were good in the area but we fished it the same time as before for 4 years and last year was not very good at all for us for the silvers.



    Thanks
    You might start here: http://www.adfg.alaska.gov/sf/FishCounts/.
    Year round saltwater fishing adventures in Homer, AK.
    http://muttleycrewfishing.com

  3. #3
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    Thanks I looked there but it did not seem real accurate, I have done so good up there in the fall and seeing so many fish but this last fall was little or nothing compared to previous years.

  4. #4
    Member Cap'n Ron's Avatar
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    Last year's silver run was predicted to be good in many other areas too and it was very poor...and none at all in some runs. Since the hatchery runs were equally poor, it seems to me it wasn't spawning success that cause that weak run, must have been ocean conditions...environmental, predation, possibly overfishing, but something in the ocean.

  5. #5
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    Yea that is the way it was in Oregon also. I was trying to show another buddy that the runs have been much better up there in the past 5 years and to see what the newest forecast is. Thanks

  6. #6

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    Quote Originally Posted by Iwanttofish View Post
    Thanks I looked there but it did not seem real accurate, I have done so good up there in the fall and seeing so many fish but this last fall was little or nothing compared to previous years.
    Yeah, I didn't (and don't) want to sound sarcastic, but you're never going to find accurate predictions of what the runs will be like in any given year. It just doesn't happen that often. As Cap'n Ron says, there are just WAY too many variables to take into consideration to say exactly how many fish are going to return to a particular area.

    The past run counts sure are a great way of predicting where your best chances of catching fish will be, but it certainly isn't any indicator of what is actually going to happen the following year. Someone could make a LOT of money if they knew how to accurately tell how many fish were going to return in a particular area.
    Year round saltwater fishing adventures in Homer, AK.
    http://muttleycrewfishing.com

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    Quote Originally Posted by Muttley Crew Fishing View Post
    Yeah, I didn't (and don't) want to sound sarcastic, but you're never going to find accurate predictions of what the runs will be like in any given year. It just doesn't happen that often. As Cap'n Ron says, there are just WAY too many variables to take into consideration to say exactly how many fish are going to return to a particular area.

    The past run counts sure are a great way of predicting where your best chances of catching fish will be, but it certainly isn't any indicator of what is actually going to happen the following year. Someone could make a LOT of money if they knew how to accurately tell how many fish were going to return in a particular area.
    Oh, I realize that I was just looking for info from previous years, I have told a buddy that I have been there and they were bumping into your legs and the backs out of the water and 2-300 swimming under the boat while in the salt water. He has been there a few times now and does not believe me and is just giving me crap. This year the return numbers were very low from what I can find so I wanted to see what the returns were for the other years when it was really good and we would get our limits of 6 each in an hour or two.

    I will have to put a call into the hatchery or the state police to see if I can find the info before I book my trip for next year.
    And no I don't take it as being sarcastic we have the same numbers game here on the Columbia and Willamette rivers.

    Thanks

  8. #8
    Member Hunt&FishAK's Avatar
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    Yeah cuz the state police know everything

  9. #9
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    Well I got to try something

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