# Thread: Increased limits?

1. ## Increased limits?

Can someone explain the math that determines if limits will be increased...what's the magic number, or is it as simple as that? I imagine its obvious I'm talking about the numbers of reds hitting the Kenai.

2. Well I don't know the equation or science behind it but from years past, the current run of sockeyed should indeed fit the bill for a 6/12 limit over the current 3/3.

3. Well, I figure as much too, but I'm curious about how they determine when and to what numbers.

4. As prescribed in 5 AAC 21.360 Kenai River Late-Run Sockeye Salmon Management Plan, for a run between 2.3 million and 4.6 million fish, the 2012 late-run sockeye salmon run will be managed for an inriver goal of 1,000,000–1,200,000 sockeye salmon past the sonar counter at river mile 19, and to achieve the optimal escapement goal of 700,000 to 1,400,000 spawning sockeye salmon. ADF&G will reassess run strength of Kenai River sockeye salmon after July 20.

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Limit is generally increased once sportfish can confidently project the in-river goal will be met. If the king fishery and setnets get shut down on Thursday, be prepared for very generous limits.

5. Seems waaaaaay to early to be looking for an increased bag limit, but then I'm a bit of a pessimist.

6. Last year the EO was pushed on July 20th to 6 fish also that day there was over 700,000 fish in the river. As of today from the fish counts there are 424,000 so depends on the next couple of days what the counts are if they avg 100,000 plus for the next 3-4 days I would not be surprised if the EO is pushed.

7. the Kenai late-run sockeye management plan is at 5 AAC 21.360. It only references bag limits as follows:
"the bag and possession limit for the sport fishery is three sockeye salmon, unless the department determines that the abundance of late-run sockeye salmon exceeds 2,300,000 fish, at which time the commissioner may, by emergency order, increase the bag and possession limit as the commissioner determines to be appropriate"

So, it's not clear cut. One key point will be if/when the Department forecasts that the upper end of the optimal escapement goal will be exceeded (700,000 to 1,400,000 fish).

8. Sportfish Division states we get a bigger limit when the lower end OEG of 700K can be confidently projected. That number is equal to the sonar count minus sport harvest above the sonar.

Last year a 6 fish bag resulted in a harvest of 330K above the sonar. If 700K is the goal, then expect the EO when ADFG can project 1.05 million to the counter. Nearly halfway there by the time todays count is tabulated, and it's only July 17. With four more weeks to go, it should be an easy slam dunk... wouldn't be surprised if we see the EO sometime this weekend or even earlier.

Considering the setnet fleet will be out of commission for the rest of the month, they may as well have issued the EO today effective July 19... the way I see it, 700K after harvest above the counter is clearly in the bag.

9. Originally Posted by fishNphysician

Last year a 6 fish bag resulted in a harvest of 330K above the sonar.
How do they come up with 330,000? Thanks.

10. Originally Posted by extrema
How do they come up with 330,000? Thanks.
Expanded creel survey based on estimated angler effort.

11. Another 73K y'day brings us to nearly 1/2 million delivered to the counter in just a few days... and there's 3-4 weeks to go.

The projection to 1.1 million is all but guaranteed. Watch for that EO soon... very soon.

12. Six a day 12 in possession starting Saturday. Time to get busy!

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