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Thread: Odds to draw a tag for Black Bear Unit 2

  1. #1
    Member fly_'s Avatar
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    Default Odds to draw a tag for Black Bear Unit 2

    For some reason I'm not able to send private messages. Tried to send this to the AK official, but I believe I have to wait a month or something being a new guy (blasted rules - ) Figured I'd post it here and see what happens.

    Question:
    I was wondering if anyone had any idea what the odds were for a non-resident to draw a black bear tag for Prince Whales Island (unit 2) for the spring 2013? Up until recently tags were OTC so I'm thinking the odds would be better than 50/50. Perhaps my cranial calculator is off?

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    Member TWB's Avatar
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    Nothing posted on the fish and game website for that particular hunt?

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    Member muskeg's Avatar
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    I think all the tags for Spring 2013 have been issued.

    This Dec will be draw period for the fall 2013 and spring 2014 hunts.

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    Member fly_'s Avatar
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    Didn't realize that tags for spring 2013 might already be issued - perhaps I read it wrong but it looked like November 2012 was the time to put in for a spring 2013 hunt. Nothing I read was posted about lottery odds. I'll send an email to the DNR but figured I'd get the "it depends on how many people apply" response. Thought some here might have some "insider" information. I'll post what I find out from the DNR.

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    Member muskeg's Avatar
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    fly .... you can get your answer from Rhonda ... the secretary at the ADF&G Office in Craig, the office for Unit #2.

    rhonda.ren-kingery@alaska.gov

    or give her a call ... 907.826.2560 - Habitat/Wildlife Divisions

  6. #6

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    Quote Originally Posted by fly_ View Post
    Didn't realize that tags for spring 2013 might already be issued - perhaps I read it wrong but it looked like November 2012 was the time to put in for a spring 2013 hunt. Nothing I read was posted about lottery odds. I'll send an email to the DNR but figured I'd get the "it depends on how many people apply" response. Thought some here might have some "insider" information. I'll post what I find out from the DNR.
    Here is a link to the 2011 (November 2011 application for 2012/2013 hunting season): http://www.adfg.alaska.gov/static/li..._draw_supp.pdf

    If you scroll down to the Black Bear section on page 4, you will see that during the 2011 application period, people were applying for the spring 2013 black bear permits (Jan. 1, 2013 - June 30, 2013 season). They do this for spring hunts because by the time they award the permits in February, it is already part way into the season or too close to the season to give people a chance to plan and make travel arrangements.

    This year, there were 27 applicants for that hunt (DL028) and 11 permits issued (~41% success). You can find this by looking up the drawing permit results here: http://www.adfg.alaska.gov/index.cfm...se.drawresults. Go to the "draw results" tab and the link to the results that are "now available". Do a search for "multiple applicants" and then just fill in the information for the hunt you are looking for. You want to check the box for "Applicants" rather than just "Winners" so you see every application and can do the math from there.

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    Member fly_'s Avatar
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    You guys are great, and 100% correct.
    I wouldn't have know until much later if you all had not posted.

    Thank you so much
    Frank

  8. #8

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    What anchskier posted is interesting because when I did the same look-up he very adroitly posted I got the same results. But I know ADFG had 80 tags available for that hunt and that all 27 people who applied were given a permit for a 100% succes in the draw. ADFG then gave out the remaining "undersubscribed" tags on a first come-first served basis. Probably won't have as good of odds to draw next year when word gets out better.

  9. #9

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    Yeah, they're gone. About 1.5 months ago there were left over tags. I called back, and there were 3 left. I got one at that point and I'm sure they are all but gone now.

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    Member fly_'s Avatar
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    I saw that there were 80 for 2014. I also saw that one of the 27 you speak of had his name on the list three times. Once he had yes and twice no. I wonder if the no's were for incomplete applications or because people applied more than one time.

  11. #11

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    Quote Originally Posted by fly_ View Post
    I saw that there were 80 for 2014. I also saw that one of the 27 you speak of had his name on the list three times. Once he had yes and twice no. I wonder if the no's were for incomplete applications or because people applied more than one time.
    I don't see anyone on the list with their name in multiple times for the same hunt (i.e. DL028 or DL027, etc...). Remember, that list has a bunch of different hunts included, you just have to look on the left for the one you want to find out about. For example, Jarred Martin has his name in there three times, but for three different hunts (you can only apply for each hunt one time). Once you win a permit for a specific animal, you can't win another for the same species even if it is another hunt, thus the one "yes" and two "no"s.

  12. #12

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    Quote Originally Posted by Fullcurl View Post
    What anchskier posted is interesting because when I did the same look-up he very adroitly posted I got the same results. But I know ADFG had 80 tags available for that hunt and that all 27 people who applied were given a permit for a 100% succes in the draw. ADFG then gave out the remaining "undersubscribed" tags on a first come-first served basis. Probably won't have as good of odds to draw next year when word gets out better.

    Here's the trick. Remember, each person is only allowed to draw ONE permit for a specific species. All those on the list with a "no" by their name were listed elsewhere on that list with a "yes" for another black bear permit. They awarded all they could without giving multiple black bear permits to any one person. People got the ones they had higher in the priority list.

  13. #13

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    Quote Originally Posted by anchskier View Post
    Here's the trick. Remember, each person is only allowed to draw ONE permit for a specific species. All those on the list with a "no" by their name were listed elsewhere on that list with a "yes" for another black bear permit. They awarded all they could without giving multiple black bear permits to any one person. People got the ones they had higher in the priority list.
    Ok, I get it. The main point to the original poster though, is that there were leftover Unit 2 tags. So if he had put in for the spring hunt (DL028) as his first choice he would have had a 100% chance of drawing.

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