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Thread: Seward tonight/tomorrow weather.

  1. #1
    Member Rob B's Avatar
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    Default Seward tonight/tomorrow weather.

    So, we are thinking about heading to Seward for the first time this season and was wondering what everyones opinion on the forecast is? Think it's going to be possible to get out of the bay for some lings and rockfish?

    Rob

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    WIND FORECASTS REFLECT THE PREDOMINANT SPEED AND DIRECTION EXPECTED. SEA FORECASTS REPRESENT AN AVERAGE OF THE HIGHEST ONE-THIRD OF THE COMBINED WIND WAVE AND SWELL HEIGHT.

    Synopsis...A 1007 MB LOW 140 NM SOUTHEAST OF SITKINAK WILL MOVE TO 280 NM SOUTH OF CAPE SUCKLING LATE THIS EVENING AT 1004 MB THEN TO 160 NM SOUTHEAST OF SITKINAK SAT AFTERNOON AT 1002 MB. THIS LOW WILL THEN DRIFT TO 220 NM SOUTHEAST OF SITKINAK BY LATE SAT NIGHT.

    Today: Variable wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft. Rain.

    Tonight: N wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft. Higher winds and seas s of caines head. Rain.

    Sat: N wind 10 kt increasing to 15 kt in the afternoon. Seas 2 ft. Higher winds and seas s of caines head. Rain.

    Sat Night And Sun: S wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.

    Mon And Tue: Variable wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
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    I don't think your going to get a better forecast. If you don't like that one with an Alaskan 260 you better just sell it to me reel cheap...

  3. #3
    Member Rob B's Avatar
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    LOL. It's outside the bay I was wondering about. It's actually calling for 4's but a little windy. Just not familar with how the wind/seas are out there. Whittier I know how to read, but not Seward yet.

    Pony Cove area....
    This Afternoon: NE wind around 10 kt. Rain. Seas around 3
    ft.

    Tonight: ENE wind around 15 kt. Rain. Seas 3 to 4
    ft.

    Saturday: NE wind 15 to 20 kt. Rain. Seas around 4
    ft.

    Saturday Night: E wind 10 to 15 kt. Rain likely before
    midnight, then scattered showers after midnight. Seas 3 to 4
    ft.

    Sunday: ENE wind around 10 kt. Scattered showers. Seas around
    4 ft.

    Sunday Night: ENE wind 5 to 10 kt becoming NNW after
    midnight. Scattered showers, mainly before midnight. Seas 3 to 4
    ft.

    Monday: N wind around 10 kt becoming ENE in the afternoon. A
    chance of showers. Seas 2 to 3 ft.

    Monday Night: NE wind 10 to 15
    kt. A chance of rain. Seas 2 to 4 ft.

    Tuesday: ENE wind 10 to 15
    kt. A chance of showers. Seas 3 ft building to 6 ft.
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    Moderator bkmail's Avatar
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    For the most part, Seward will get a little rough in the afternoon, (2-3 pm) till evening time as the mtns warm and start the thermals moving. Then come evening it will lay down again.
    If you need to hide for a while it can be worth it rather than get tossed around trying to get in when it's rough.
    Thats just my experience....

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    Member Frostbitten's Avatar
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    I generally use the Cape Suckling to Gore Point forecast when I'm looking to head outside the bay....and I won't be heading outside ethe bay this weekend!!!!

    CAPE SUCKLING TO GORE POINT
    400 AM AKDT FRI JUL 6 2012

    SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH SATURDAY

    TODAY
    E WIND 25 KT. SEAS 7 FT. RAIN SHOWERS.

    TONIGHT
    E WIND 30 KT. SEAS 7 FT. RAIN SHOWERS.

    SAT
    E WIND 30 KT. SEAS 9 FT. RAIN.

    SAT NIGHT
    E WIND 20 KT. SEAS 7 FT.

    SUN
    E WIND 25 KT. SEAS 7 FT.

  6. #6
    Member Rob B's Avatar
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    Well crap. That does it then. Guess I'll sit at home, grill some fish, drink some beer and stare at the boat. Thanks for the info Frostbitten. That's exactly the info I was looking for.
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    Member Frostbitten's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by robbentler View Post
    Well crap. That does it then. Guess I'll sit at home, grill some fish, drink some beer and stare at the boat. Thanks for the info Frostbitten. That's exactly the info I was looking for.
    Sorry....but just think of the money you'll save in fuel this weekend!!

  8. #8
    Member Rob B's Avatar
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    Very true, but where's the fun in that?
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    Member Frostbitten's Avatar
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    I hear ya!!

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    Quote Originally Posted by robbentler View Post
    LOL. It's outside the bay I was wondering about. It's actually calling for 4's but a little windy. Just not familar with how the wind/seas are out there. Whittier I know how to read, but not Seward yet.

    Pony Cove area....
    This Afternoon: NE wind around 10 kt. Rain. Seas around 3
    ft.

    Tonight: ENE wind around 15 kt. Rain. Seas 3 to 4
    ft.

    Saturday: NE wind 15 to 20 kt. Rain. Seas around 4
    ft.

    Saturday Night: E wind 10 to 15 kt. Rain likely before
    midnight, then scattered showers after midnight. Seas 3 to 4
    ft.

    Sunday: ENE wind around 10 kt. Scattered showers. Seas around
    4 ft.

    Sunday Night: ENE wind 5 to 10 kt becoming NNW after
    midnight. Scattered showers, mainly before midnight. Seas 3 to 4
    ft.

    Monday: N wind around 10 kt becoming ENE in the afternoon. A
    chance of showers. Seas 2 to 3 ft.

    Monday Night: NE wind 10 to 15
    kt. A chance of rain. Seas 2 to 4 ft.

    Tuesday: ENE wind 10 to 15
    kt. A chance of showers. Seas 3 ft building to 6 ft.
    I look at the Gore Point forecast too. Big E wind would blow into Pony Cove too I would think. Where did you find the forecast for Pony Cove?

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    Quote Originally Posted by robbentler View Post
    LOL. It's outside the bay I was wondering about.
    So no cheap boat?


    I didn't read your post close enough either, I thought you were heading to PC! Sure changes fast~!

  12. #12
    Member Rob B's Avatar
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    Bkbaker, There is no exact forecast for Pony Cove, but with the new NOAA weather chart you can click on the map and it give you a more accurate forecast for that area.

    http://forecast.weather.gov/MapClick...&FcstType=text
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  13. #13

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    Quote Originally Posted by Frostbitten View Post
    I generally use the Cape Suckling to Gore Point forecast when I'm looking to head outside the bay....and I won't be heading outside ethe bay this weekend!!!!
    I'm not sure I'd use Gore Point to Cape Suckling as an indicator of what it'll be like at Pony. Pony Cove is inside of Res. Bay and somewhat protected from what's going on further out. If you click on Pony Cove on the NOAA weather chart like robbentler said you'll get what it should be like there.

    But as I've said about a thousand times on this forum now, don't ever believe what one particular marine forecast is saying and especially one that's 24 or more hours ahead of time. And I NEVER put much faith in what it says anyway. It can change drastically from one forecast to the next and what they say it will be with the 4 o'clock afternoon report can be drastically different than what it turns out to be. You really need to learn to read about half a dozen or so indicators and formulate your own plan from that. That's one of the big reasons I decided to move to Homer. I got pretty tired of seeing a marine forecast the day before that said it was going to be half-way decent, driving all the way down from Anchorage and finding the Spit surfers hitting the 6 ft. waves bouncing off the beach. And conversely, deciding NOT to head down here to fish because it said it was really going to suck and reading a fishing report from someone saying they'd actually gone out that day and it was gorgeous out.

    And it changes in just a few hours, too. Yesterday we fought about 5 to 6 ft. swells heading out in the morning and when we headed back in from about 24 miles out it had flattened out to maybe a foot or so. You just never know.
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  14. #14

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    As a rule I take the Res. bay report and split the difference with Gore if I am staying inside A. Cape. The 2 things to be concerned with is the N wind and E wind. Ultimately you want S wind or variable. I don`t get overly worried until I see wind at 20 knots. There are always going to be rollers from Calisto on to the outside but a steady east wind adds to their frequency and a north stacks them up. As noted the gateway and inner bay will get more rough in the afternoon but usually lays down towards evening.


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  15. #15
    Member bkbaker's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by robbentler View Post
    Bkbaker, There is no exact forecast for Pony Cove, but with the new NOAA weather chart you can click on the map and it give you a more accurate forecast for that area.

    http://forecast.weather.gov/MapClick...&FcstType=text
    I have been lost a little on the NOAA site with all the changes. Nice pointer on the detailed forecast. I'll use it with a hand full of salt.

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    When I do a weather search I just type "noaa pkz121" into my google search on the toolbar and its the first thing that pops up. keeps me from having to click thru noaa. also look at zone 120. but the best thing to do is to look outside...

    ...and oh well, it looks pretty crappy outside right now in Seward

  17. #17
    Member bkbaker's Avatar
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    Maybe it won't be Sh****r in Whittier?!?

  18. #18

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    Today was an interesting example of what to expect out there at any given time. I think the marine forecast this morning for Cook Inlet was 20 kt winds and 4 ft seas. But since I put little faith in the marine forecast we headed out anyway and cruised through pretty flat water all the way. So we went past Perl and finally got into seas that were about that and then within about an hour it had built to swells that you couldn't see over when the boat hit the bottom of the trough. Only a slight wind wave on top of them, but very disconcerting. So we headed back to the south side of Elizabeth and it was about a foot of rollers coming through with only a hint of a breeze blowing on us. We had an absolutely beautiful day out there (despite the continuous drizzle) and I doubt I'd have gone out there if I'd just looked at the marine forecast and taken that as gospel. Ya gotta read the weather!
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