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Thread: Marine Forecast roller coaster

  1. #1
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    Default Marine Forecast roller coaster

    Watching the NOAA marine forecast is like watching a game of ping pong lately. Most of the day yesterday was calling for 4-5 footers in Cook Inlet for today (wed), then in the afternoon it changed to calling for 2 footers. Now this morning 3-4 footers. It seems someone is just looking out the window and guessing. I'm wondering if it's the weather that's so unpredictable or is it NOAA?
    It's certainly understandable that the weather is unpredictable but the back and forth the last few weeks has been a joke. It would be better for them to post "We Officially have no Friggen Idea".

    Just a small rant for people who actually try to plan fishing trips and don't have a 30' boat

  2. #2

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    It is frustrating but I don't give it as much weight as some do and my boat is small. Nothing replaces being there and seeing what is going on. The worst case scenario is you sit on the windy shore and wait for some calm weather. There are no bad days in Homer as far as I'm concerned; there is always something to do on the water or off.

  3. #3
    Moderator Paul H's Avatar
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    Weather in Alaska in highly unpredictable and changes quickly. Remember, it's better to on land wishing you were out to see, than out to see and wishing you on land.

    It's looking like a Grundens and Xtra-tuff summer for sure.
    Those that are successful in Alaska are those who are flexible, and allow the reality of life in Alaska to shape their dreams, vs. trying to force their dreams on the reality of Alaska.

    If you have a tenuous grasp of reality, Alaska is not for you.

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    Member Queen of Kings's Avatar
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    [QUOTE=Paul H;1133611] Remember, it's better to on land wishing you were out to see, than out to see and wishing you on land.
    QUOTE]

    Well Put!!
    2003 220 Hewescraft Sea Runner 115 Yam'y, Soft Top "Schmidt Happens"

  5. #5
    Member FishKing's Avatar
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    Look at marine forcast, weather radar, and call the harbor master in the area your going. if you get to dock and the weather is too bad than turn around and go home. I went to Seward last weekend and it was calling for 3 foot seas and 6-8 foot out further and everything was like glass. The only thing correct was the rain....

    the trip before I stayed home and it was sunny and flat at whittier............ Crap missed a good weekend.

  6. #6
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    Quote Originally Posted by TYBSP View Post
    Watching the NOAA marine forecast is like watching a game of ping pong lately. Most of the day yesterday was calling for 4-5 footers in Cook Inlet for today (wed), then in the afternoon it changed to calling for 2 footers. Now this morning 3-4 footers. It seems someone is just looking out the window and guessing. I'm wondering if it's the weather that's so unpredictable or is it NOAA?
    It's certainly understandable that the weather is unpredictable but the back and forth the last few weeks has been a joke. It would be better for them to post "We Officially have no Friggen Idea".

    Just a small rant for people who actually try to plan fishing trips and don't have a 30' boat
    THANK YOU!!!!! I've been thinking the same thing recently. It would be nice having something reliable to plan off of. It's one thing if "home" is on the bluff overlooking the Cook Inlet and a whole seperate deal if you live in Anchorage and have to drive 3-4 hours just to see what the weather is doing. I understand the weather changes but for my tax money (NOAA) it would be nice to see something that's actually useful.......

  7. #7
    Charterboat Operator
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    Quote Originally Posted by TYBSP View Post
    Watching the NOAA marine forecast is like watching a game of ping pong lately. Most of the day yesterday was calling for 4-5 footers in Cook Inlet for today (wed), then in the afternoon it changed to calling for 2 footers. Now this morning 3-4 footers. It seems someone is just looking out the window and guessing. I'm wondering if it's the weather that's so unpredictable or is it NOAA?
    It's certainly understandable that the weather is unpredictable but the back and forth the last few weeks has been a joke. It would be better for them to post "We Officially have no Friggen Idea".

    Just a small rant for people who actually try to plan fishing trips and don't have a 30' boat
    Try to monitor your wind observation buoy's and compare them with your wave buoy's, what there direction, height and velocity are over a period of an hour or so in the AM, then compare that with your marine weather forecast and then compare that with passage weather's golf coast observations and forecast. Figure out what your tide will be doing in the area you will be fishing and what it will be doing traveling there and back. Find out when your slack tide's are as they my be your only window home if the weather come's up. Compile all that data and grab a hand full of dice and roll em across the table and that is my life every morning when Im charter fishing out of Homer! Good luck and be safe.

  8. #8
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    Quote Originally Posted by Capt Nemo View Post
    Try to monitor your wind observation buoy's and compare them with your wave buoy's, what there direction, height and velocity are over a period of an hour or so in the AM, then compare that with your marine weather forecast and then compare that with passage weather's golf coast observations and forecast. Figure out what your tide will be doing in the area you will be fishing and what it will be doing traveling there and back. Find out when your slack tide's are as they my be your only window home if the weather come's up. Compile all that data and grab a hand full of dice and roll em across the table and that is my life every morning when Im charter fishing out of Homer! Good luck and be safe.
    Well put, I for one appreciate NOAA's conservative outlook, of course my boats only 16'...

  9. #9

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    I'm wondering if it's the weather that's so unpredictable or is it NOAA?
    TYBSP,

    This has been one of the most unsettled weather patterns I have seen for the spring/early summer time. The weather while I have been in the PWS this year has changed rapidly every 12 hours. The sunny weather SW wind in Passage Canal which is normally in the 20-30 MPH range has been in the 30-50 MPH range this year. I guess do to rapidly moving weather systems. While in Kachemak Bay this year, we would watch sky, wind and water conditions change every 4-6 hours. This weather pattern is not NOAA's fault. I am gratelful for all the real time weather tools that we available to us. Here is a tool I have been using while the weather bouys in the Sound are down: http://data.aoos.org/maps/sensors/#b...ensor-stations The sensors on Seal Island have wind direction and velocity readings for the middle of PWS.

    Doug

  10. #10

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    Quote Originally Posted by TYBSP View Post
    Watching the NOAA marine forecast is like watching a game of ping pong lately. Most of the day yesterday was calling for 4-5 footers in Cook Inlet for today (wed), then in the afternoon it changed to calling for 2 footers. Now this morning 3-4 footers. It seems someone is just looking out the window and guessing. I'm wondering if it's the weather that's so unpredictable or is it NOAA?
    It's certainly understandable that the weather is unpredictable but the back and forth the last few weeks has been a joke. It would be better for them to post "We Officially have no Friggen Idea".

    Just a small rant for people who actually try to plan fishing trips and don't have a 30' boat
    I think I've said it about half a dozen times in other threads, but I put about 20% faith in what the marine forecast says. Nemo puts it pretty succinctly. I always look at all of the weather stations including Augustine and what the trend of the wind seems to be doing at all of the weather stations, and also the NOAA "TV Weather" and the Anchor Point wave height buoy and just extrapolate my own "marine forecast" from that. I find it is a LOT more accurate doing that.
    Year round saltwater fishing adventures in Homer, AK.
    http://muttleycrewfishing.com

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