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Thread: Last years sockeye abnormally high?

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    Default Last years sockeye abnormally high?

    I looked at the runs between 2010 and 2011 there is about a 300k fluctuation between the 2 years and from what I heard they upped the limit from 3 to 6 fish a last year first time that has happend in some time according to some other folks I have spoken to. What do you think the forcast this year Will be?

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    Member FishGod's Avatar
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    The total forecasted sockeye return for Upper Cook Inlet is 6.2 million. The sockeye run forecast for the Kenai is 4 million, which is 6% greater than the 20 year average of 3.8 million. The sockeye salmon run for the Kasilof is 754,000, which is 21% less than the 20 year average.The forecast for the Susitna river is 443,000, which is 50% less than the 20 year average of 881,000.
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    Forum Admin Brian M's Avatar
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    Take the forecasts with a huge grain of salt. Some years the fish show up in large numbers while other years the run fails to materialize as expected. It's a helpful tool for managers, but I wouldn't base any trip planning on sockeye forecasts. As for the limit, it is raised from 3 to 6 with some regularity, generally once the escapement goals have been reached and there is a risk of the upper limit being exceeded.

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    Good numbers for the Kenai, not so much for the Kasilof and Susitna. I also heard the 2011 Tōhoku earthquake and tsunami in April was a result of the fish numbers being to high because all of the fishing vessels in Japan were damaged and could get out to fish. How true this is I have no idea.

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    I actually just looked this up the salmon normally dont leave Bering Sea and the Gulf of Alaska. So it looks like in 2007 was a good spawning year for them.

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    Member FishGod's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by Jeremy B. View Post
    I actually just looked this up the salmon normally dont leave Bering Sea and the Gulf of Alaska. So it looks like in 2007 was a good spawning year for them.

    Not necessarily, the sockeye run is comprised of various years of recruitment (1.2, 1.3, 1.4, 2.2, and 2.3) 2011 was higher than expected due to age 2.3 sockeye which contributed 2.9 million.
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    I also think that the new DIDSON radar also helped with the counts. So just be at the right place at the right time is key, and we hit the nail on the head last year...


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    There is at least one member on here that couldn't catch their limit at the RR or near Ferry due to the bad numbers, However most everyone else had a fantastic year on these waterways.
    If you are planning on making the trip this year the I would really start looking in this forum and Alaska Outdoor Journal around May or June to see how things are forming up. All the scenery, wildlife and relaxation make the trip worth it, catching a few or limit of fishies is the bonus.

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    I hear that sniper..My first trip to AK was end of May to 1st week in June which was way early it wasnt exacty my "Alaska Fishing Adventure", came home did my homework and hit it good last July.

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    In my last post I opened it talking about bad numbers, the intent of that was that this person perception was the run wasn't as good as everyone was making it because the fish weren't boiling up the river system to jump on his hook. The sockeye run last year was fantastic to say the least. I think with homework you will catch fish especially if you monitor AOJ or get in good with a forum member that fishes alot and has a good grasp on what is going on in the system you want to fish. Just start looking in late May thru early June for fish reports.

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    Quote Originally Posted by sniper3083006 View Post
    The sockeye run last year was fantastic to say the least.
    A million fish swam past the sonar just in the eight days I spent on the river... that doesn't include all the fish still in the lower 19 miles of the river. Yeah, that's a poopload of reds.

    The run for 2012 looks to be quite good. Here's the official forecast with an explanation of the 2011 return as well.

    http://www.adfg.alaska.gov/static/fi...e_forecast.pdf
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    Question

    The most astounding aspect of last year's abundant sockeye run is that it occurred in spite of all the dire predictions of "overescapement" causing diminished returns.

    What explains that?

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    Quote Originally Posted by Marcus View Post
    The most astounding aspect of last year's abundant sockeye run is that it occurred in spite of all the dire predictions of "overescapement" causing diminished returns.

    What explains that?
    Dept of Fish managers with agendas Oops, did I take the bait and say that out loud?

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    Can July get here already?

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    Member Col. F Rodder's Avatar
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    4 months to go, for the red slaying. Can someone start the countdown!!!

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    12... 11... 10... 9... 8... 7... 6... 5... 4... 3... 2... 1!

    "Let every angler who loves to fish think what it would mean to him to find the fish were gone." Zane Grey
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    144 days and counting

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    Member alaskachuck's Avatar
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    Bring on the fishes
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    Grandkids, Making big tough guys hearts melt at first sight

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    Chuck, is that a dipnet handle I see sticking up in the boat behind Eddie?

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    Member Bob the fisher's Avatar
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    Awesome picture man. I have a couple like that and hope to get quite a few more again this year... If you can't catch a fish on the Kenia in June or July, I would find something else to do... "fishon"


    Quote Originally Posted by fishNphysician View Post
    12... 11... 10... 9... 8... 7... 6... 5... 4... 3... 2... 1!


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