Originally Posted by

**Nerka**
. . Below is the ADF&G update on the Kenai River production **models** using the data from this year return. As you can read for yourself the Brood Year Interaction **model** is still the best fit. . the conjecture on needing a new **model** has not been supported. . . The Markov table is what has happened in the past and is not a **model** per se. It is empirical data. .

Next year could change things again on **model** fit depending on how the return comes in.

With the large Kenai return this year folks have been talking about whether the brood interaction **model*** is history or if the EG is going to change. Assuming the final 2011 Kenai run is 5.7 million, I updated the brood table and estimated the fit of the various ***models*** we included in our 2010 EG report. The following is a brief comparison:*

*2010 report Updated ***Model**

*Ricker ***Model** – R2 0.528 0.547

*BYI ***Model** – R2 0.600 0.593

*I also updated the Markov table and the BYI simulation ***model** (see below).

*So, this analysis indicated a small increase in the fit of the Ricker ***model** and a small decrease in the fit of the BYI **model**, but the BYI **model** is still the best fit **model**. In the Markov table, the mean yield for escapements >1,300,000 increased from 2,566,000 to 2,863,000, but the highest mean yields were still in the 600,000 – 900,000 range. The BYI simulation with the updated **model** parameters indicated the goal range would change to 700,000 to 1,300,000. If our smolt data is accurate, we may have another large return of 2.3’s next year coming off the 2006 brood year.